Austin closed out 2025 with 709 single-family home sales,
a 6.1% increase from last December. While sales volume ticked up, pricing showed the continued effects of the year’s
buyer-friendly environment.
- The median sales price settled at $584,900 (-4.1% YoY), while the average sales price held relatively flat at $822,315 (-0.4% YoY).
- Price per square foot averaged $339, down slightly from previous months.
- Inventory tightened significantly. As of January 8th, there are 1,972 active listings, bringing months of supply down to 2.79 (3.18 in December). This is a sharp seasonal contraction from the 5+ months we saw in late summer, driven largely by sellers pulling homes off the market for the holidays rather than a massive surge in buyer demand.
Buyers: The "on-paper" stats show tightening inventory, but don't let that fool you into panic. The high frequency of price drops (54%) and a list-to-close ratio of 91.38% prove you still have significant negotiating power on homes that are lingering.
Sellers: The crowd has thinned. With fewer active listings competing for attention, serious buyers are looking at your home. However,
with prices softening year-over-year, pricing and preparation remains your leverage.
List-to-Close & Buyer Leverage
Negotiation Has Re-Entered the Chat
Homes closed at 91.38% of the list price in December.
- This is a strong signal that list prices are still lagging behind market value.
- Buyers: You are effectively negotiating an average of -8.6% off the asking price across the board. Use this data to justify offers below the list price, especially on homes with high DOM.
- Sellers: If you are pricing with "wiggle room," you are likely pricing yourself out of consideration. The data suggests buyers aren't just wiggling; they are demanding significant concessions.
Sales & Demand Trends
- New Listings: 383 (-10.1% YoY). Sellers pulled back significantly for the holidays.
- New Under Contracts: 497 (+3.5% YoY). Demand outpaced supply in December, eating into the inventory backlog.
- Median Days on Market: 54 days (+2 days YoY).
- Average Days on Market: 75 days.
90-Day Trend & Month-to-Date (January)
The "New Spring" Market
As we roll into January 2026, the market is waking up.
- Month-to-Date (Jan 1-8): We've already seen 139 New Listings hit the market, signaling the holiday freeze is thawing.
- Pending Activity: 96 homes have gone under contract in the first week of the year alone.
- Outlook: We expect inventory to climb rapidly in late January and February. The "window of opportunity" where buyers had low competition is closing as the spring market ramps up early.
What’s Coming Next (60-Day Outlook)
The Spring Thaw
If rates remain stable, we anticipate a busy Q1. The seasonal tightening of inventory we saw in December will reverse as new
sellers enter the market for the "Spring" rush, which in Austin often starts in February.
- Buyers: Be prepared for more competition on the best homes. The "stale" inventory will still be there for bargaining, but fresh, well-priced listings will move fast.
- Sellers: The backlog of inventory is your biggest threat. You must launch as the "shiny penny"—perfect condition and sharp price—to stand out against the noise of 2025's leftover listings.
