Austin’s single-family market showed distinctive activity this March, closing with 741 sales, a 3.3% increase compared to the same time last year. The median sales price was down, settling in at $595,000 (-2.5% YoY), and the average sales price softened slightly to $817,606 (-0.3% YoY). The average price per square foot was at $345.
Inventory has tightened considerably since the summer peaks of 2025, with 2,653 active listings. This has pulled our months of supply down to 3.58, keeping the market firmly in favor of sellers by the numbers, though the ground reality remains highly price-sensitive.
Buyers: The selection is narrower than it was six months ago.
Sellers: Demand is finally catching up with supply, but only for those who present a polished product.
Months Supply of Inventory
3.58 Months: Demand Regains Its Edge. We are seeing a significant departure from the 5.1 months of supply recorded last July. With a 5.3% year-over-year increase in new under contracts (855), buyers are absorbing inventory at a rate that is outpacing the delivery of new options. While we are technically in a seller’s market (defined as less than 6 months of supply), the high volume of stale inventory means that fresh, well-positioned listings are the only ones seeing immediate results.
Price Range
Months of Supply Status:
$200,000 - $299,999 - 2.5 Months
$300,000 - $399,999 - 3.0 Months
$400,000 - $499,999 - 3.1 Months
$500,000 - $599,999 - 3.2 Months
$600,000 - $699,999 - 2.8 Months
$700,000 - $799,999 - 3.4 Months
$800,000 - $999,999 - 3.5 Months
$1.M - $1.19M - 3.3 Months
$1.2M - $1.39 - 5 Months
$1.4M+ - 6.6 Months
Supply & Demand Dynamics: The Inventory Correlation
The relationship between days on market (DOM), price drops, and supply reveals a market that is moving at two very different speeds.
- New Construction vs. Existing Inventory: New inventory appears to be absorbed faster than existing stock. While existing homes make up the bulk of active listings, new construction currently accounts for a growing percentage of successful contracts in higher price points, as buyers favor "turn-key" quality over older inventory that may lack the same condition.
- The Price Drop Driver: Existing inventory is the primary contributor to price reductions. Currently, 43% of the total supply has seen a price drop, but these are heavily concentrated in "stale" listings that
have lingered.
- Are Reductions Moving Inventory? Yes—but timing is everything. Listings that adjust their price move to contract in a median of 14 days post-drop. This confirms that while a home may sit for 58 days at the wrong price, the market responds almost immediately once the "gap" between seller expectation and buyer reality is bridged.
- The "Low Supply/High Price Drop" Paradox: We are seeing a low months-of-supply (3.58) alongside high price drops (43%) because the market is highly segmented. DESIRABLE supply is low; however, the "backlog" of uninspired or over-priced homes remains high. Sellers are forced to drop prices even in a "low supply" environment because buyers are savvy and refuse to overpay for anything less than the "shiny penny".
90-Day Trend & Month-to-Date
The Early Spring Pulse The momentum from March has carried directly into early April. As of April 10th, we have already seen 2,459 new pendings YTD, a 7% increase over last year's pace.
- April MTD: 263 new listings have hit the market in the first week of the month.
- Inventory Outlook: We expect active listings to climb as we head into May, but if the current pace of under-contracts holds, the market temperature will remain much warmer than the sluggish environment of 2024.
What’s Coming Next (60-Day Outlook)
A Segmented Horizon
The Austin market is no longer a monolith. We are operating in
two lanes:
- Lane 1: Fresh, well-designed homes priced with precision that see multiple offers within the first 10 days.
- Lane 2: Overpriced "leftover" inventory from 2025 that requires steep discounts to engage today's savvy buyers.
Buyers: Expect competition for new arrivals to intensify. Be ready to move on the "shiny" listings while looking for deep value in properties with high days-on-market. Sellers: Precision is your only protection against the backlog. With nearly 2,000 active homes still sitting, your first impression must be flawless to capture the current surge
in demand.
